The Weekly Update 1/30/2026™
Disinflation!
The chart above is sourced from the TrueNetwork, who I happen to know, and I trust this independent data source.
As you can see, the current inflation rate is running at 1.21%, which is dramatically lower than The Federal Reserve antiquated data gathering system.
I have written under Sign #7, (Inflation / Deflation and GDP), several times over the last two years that the “Real” inflation rate was dropping versus the government stats. Why? Housing costs make up over 30% of the inflation rate and those costs have been dropping in “Real Time”, per apartmentlist.com, for two years. The Federal Reserve does not use real time data and because of that, their inflation rate lags reality by nearly 2 years!
I have written in The Weekly Updates™ and The Seven Signs of a Changing Economy™, that the housing data would catch up and when it did inflation would start the downward decent rather quickly and, in the process, surprise and confuse most all economists and investors.
The chart above shows the inflation trend very clearly and the trend is down dramatically. In the very near future all the bologna talk about “sticky inflation” will disappear.
Just take a guess at what the next scary monster story will be to replace it? Yes! Deflation? In my opinion, the analyst community, economists and investment managers in general, who have been strikingly WRONG on inflation, will also be wrong on deflation.
It is more likely we are headed back to an economy much like the late 1950’s and 1960’s of low inflation (just right), increasing productivity and significant economic expansion.
I did not say market valuations go straight up, and I did not say without volatility, yet the data flow suggests the good old USA has a very bright outlook. Think “Five Year Money” (Read it Here).
As always, I am interested in your thoughts, comments, and questions.
Respectfully,
James O. Lunney, CFP®
CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ Professional
*The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. Investing involves risk. Loss, including loss of principal, may occur. No strategy assures success or protects against loss. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
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