The Weekly Update 09/11/2026™
Created by Brittany Jarocki, CFP®, (Jim's business partner, daughter and the succession plan Jim hopes he never needs).
There are a few elephants in the room when people reflect on today’s economic environment. The first is the geopolitical turmoil over the US/Iran conflict and the status of the Strait of Hormuz. The second is the new Federal Reserve chair, Kevin Warsh, and his burning desire to combat inflation. Third is the chatter around the sustainability of AI company stock prices.
The war between US and Iran began on February 28, 2026, and I initially expected it to last a few weeks. A few weeks have turned into a few months, and it has almost become old news as it relates to financial markets. No doubt that the price of oil affects us at the pumps on a daily basis, but other than the initial knee-jerk reaction that brought oil prices to $103/barrel, we have seen prices stabilize and experience much less volatility in prices since. Everyday Americans have seen that the conflict has little impact on their daily lives and therefore glaze over the headlines as they come since we have seen the “on again, off again” news of a “deal” so many times with no actual conclusion that it’s not even worth reading the article. Without further escalation, this remains noise.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh chose to keep rates unchanged at the last fed meeting. It would also be reasonable for the Fed to continue to hold rates steady come September. The Fed must realize that the increase in price of a barrel of oil is event-driven, not a sustained market change. If we take oil out of the equation, other indicators such as unemployment PCE, GDP, and consumer spending, we see each of them beginning to level out, suggesting that a rate hike is not necessary at this time.
Finally, the sustainability of AI stocks. The AI movement is one that will likely change the world trajectory forever and create a lot of millionaires in the process. The “B” word often comes up as people see rapid growth and high price tags associated with AI companies. The last time we saw something similar, it was a bubble – the tech wreck of 2000. The difference this time? These AI companies actually have earnings, real sales, real profit, and are not just selling promises. This earnings season could rank among the most impressive in recent history. Pullbacks are normal, even healthy, and should be expected. But I don’t consider this to be bubble territory.
Thank you for your trust and confidence. As always, I am interested in your thoughts, comments, and observations. Feel welcome to call, email or stop by the office and say Hi.
Respectfully,
James O. Lunney, CFP®
CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ Professional
The Wealth Strategies Group
7761 Shaffer Parkway, Suite 100
Littleton, CO 80127
Ph. 303-933-2107 Fax 303-933-7175
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