ance.The Weekly Update 1/23/2026™
Written by Brittany Jarocki CFP, (Jim's business partner, daughter and the succession plan Jim hopes he never needs).
Headlines of potential short-term speedbumps are making the news and doing their best to rattle investors of Corporate America.
There are three speedbumps that are front and center for early 2026: 1) Tariffs/Geopolitics 2) Interest rates and 3) New Federal Reserve Chair. All of these topics have been scary headlines in the news for the first few weeks of January.
These topics are important, but they are also short-term noise and distraction to actual performance and productivity of companies of Corporate America. History shows that long-run returns in the financial markets are driven primarily by earnings, innovation (think AI!), and compounding interest and reinvested gains. Q4 2025 earnings are still being reported as I write this on 1/20/26, but overall, are shaping up to be another solid, broadly positive season with healthy overall profit and leadership.
The graph at the top of this page has blue arrows indicating many scary events in the world and the corresponding movement in the S&P500 since 1871 (courtesy of Keith Fitz-Gerald Research). As you can see, there has never been a downturn in history that markets didn’t recover from. In other words, markets have recovered from every single scary event. Not one, not some. Every single one. Of course, past performance is no guarantee of future performance.
I anticipate that six months from now, these three short-term speed bumps will be behind us. And while they may create bumpiness in the financial markets until then, it is important to remind ourselves that we are long-term investors and a “five-year money” mindset should ease any worries in the meantime.
I did not say market valuations go straight up, and I did not say without volatility, yet the data flow suggests the good old USA has a very bright outlook. Think “Five Year Money” (Read it Here).
As always, I am interested in your thoughts, comments, and questions.
Respectfully,
James O. Lunney, CFP®
CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ Professional
*The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. Investing involves risk. Loss, including loss of principal, may occur. No strategy assures success or protects against loss. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
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