The Weekly Update 10/11/2024
Written by Brittany Jarocki CFP, (Jim's business partner, daughter and the succession plan Jim hopes he never needs).
Since 1950, the month September has had an average decline of -0.7%. The past four September’s have had declines of -4.9%, -9.3%, -4.8% and -3.9%. Perhaps we should consider moving Halloween and all of the October spookiness into September instead so that the holiday season is more consistent with historical market trends!
However, September 2024 has bucked this historically negative trend, coming in with a 1.2% gain month to date as of 9/24/2024.
Historically, a strong nine months have been followed by a positive fourth quarter 80% of the time, with an average gain of 3.5%.
But, of course, this is not what our news stations are telling us! Why? Because good news doesn’t keep people’s eyes glued to the screens every day! Scary news captures far more interest and sells far more advertisements…BOO!
The break in the September trend certainly doesn’t mean that we won’t see volatility throughout the end of the year. With a contentious presidential election on the horizon, it is almost certain that we will see a pullback. This is consistent with history and would be healthy for markets to take a breath after reaching all-time highs.
When we do see this volatility, remember that we have a plan in place and that we are investing for the long-term, all of the noise in between the new highs is just that – noise!
I’m interested in your thoughts, comments and observations. Feel welcome to call, email, or stop by the office and say Hi.
Respectfully,
James O. Lunney, CFP®
CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ Professional
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, a registered investment advisor. Member FINRA/SIPC. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk in all market environments.
All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested in directly. The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful. Stock investing includes risks, including fluctuating prices and loss of principal.
Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Value investments can perform differently from the market as a whole. They can remain undervalued by the market for long periods of time.