The Weekly Update 10/24/2025™
Fear Versus Reality
The updates you read here each week have been consistently positive on our economy, the outlook
going forward as well as the trend of investment markets. I know that can be boring when all the negative news is so stimulating, unsettling yet actionable.
In these weekly updates, and the monthly updates for The Seven Signs of a Changing Economy™, my goal is to be as impactful as those talking heads on TV and radio who can scare you by just whispering a few words. The words may not even be true, yet if presented in the scary tone at the most effective inflection and volume they can spook the herd, like we have seen over a few recent days.
In reality, since October of 2022 in these weekly updates, and the beginning of this new bull (positive) market, you have read fact after source cited fact why very few investors are NOTBULLISHENOUGH!
Why? Corporate America as measured by the S&P 500, has had 49 of the 500 companies report earnings per share (EPS) so far for 3Q2025. EPS is +16.50% for the same period one year ago on just a +8.2% increase in revenue. Over 80% are beating their own forecast for earnings, so far.
Below is a chart summarizing S&P 500 earnings from LSEG Datastream on Yardeni Research as of October 9, 2025.
Make special note of the red line in the middle, as that is what drives the value of Corporate America higher.
In The Weekly Update 10/3/2025 (Read it Here), I presented this chart of earnings growth and rates.
Just a hunch on my part, but I would bet dollars to donuts that the estimates above for 2026 are much too low. Think more like $325.00 and that may be too low as A.I. and tech continue to push the productivity of Corporate America even higher.
This last chart, one of my favorites, is what I see when I look at that red line above in chart #1. In a nutshell, “not bullish enough” and “gonna need a bigger rocket!”
I did not say market valuations go straight up, and I did not say without volatility, yet the data flow suggests the good old USA has a very bright outlook. Think “Five Year Money” (Read it Here).
I’m interested in your thoughts, comments and observations. Feel welcome to call, email, or stop by the office and say Hi.
Respectfully,
James O. Lunney, CFP®
CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ Professional
*The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. Investing involves risk. Loss, including loss of principal, may occur. No strategy assures success or protects against loss. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
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