The Weekly Update 10/04/2024
What Didn’t Happen?
As I have shared with you for the last few months, and most recently in The Weekly Update for September 20, 2024 (Read it Here) and September 27, 2024 (Read it Here), September has earned the title of worst market performing month of the twelve.
The chart below goes back to 1950 and represents the average gain or loss for each day in September over those 73 years, (source: Truvestments, 9-3-2024).
It is very important to note what didn’t happen in September 2024. What didn’t happen is a market valuation correction, retraction, crash, etc. What happened instead was September valuations went up +4.22% as measured by the S&P 500.
More importantly, over 30% of the 500 companies that make up the S&P 500 are up over 20% YTD, i.e., a very broad base, which is considered positive.
This is the market’s way of suggesting upside strength is building under the surface. Let’s call it the pause that refreshes, and it suggests any dips in valuations between now and year end 2024 are opportunities to invest and also the reason to stay invested.
It is very easy to get caught up in political news right now, and in just a few months it won’t matter. So try to focus on this reality, in less that 90 days we will cross the border into 2025. With almost any data point you choose to look at hitting record, or new record, all-time highs. Data points like
- Cash in the Banks
- Money Market Balances
- Household Income
- Household Net Worth
- Gross Domestic Product
- Corporate Revenues and Earnings
and…. Corporate Valuations as measured by the S&P 500 sitting at all-time highs.
Please point out the part that is supposed to be scary.
Ifwedo get an election pothole…pounce on that as an opportunity. Your future self will hug you.
Don’t fret, panic or worry if the “normal” back and fill comes knocking. It will not be as scary as the business news will tell you. Instead, I think the knocking will be an opportunity and here at TWSG, we will pounce on that, for now just pray that it comes!
At TWSG, we are well allocated for this and have our well thought out Investment Selection Matrix™, investment menu working in our collective TWSG family’s asset allocations.
I’m interested in your thoughts, comments and observations. Feel welcome to call, email, or stop by the office and say Hi.
Respectfully,
James O. Lunney, CFP®
CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ Professional
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, a registered investment advisor. Member FINRA/SIPC. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk in all market environments.
All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested in directly. The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful. Stock investing includes risks, including fluctuating prices and loss of principal.
Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Value investments can perform differently from the market as a whole. They can remain undervalued by the market for long periods of time.