The Weekly Update 12/12/2025™

Exactly, Where Is That Recession?

It has now been over three years (September 2022), since JPMorgan CEO, Jamie Diamond was quoted during an interview about the coming recession, “There is the recession, it’s right there, you can see it”.

If you were to search his name on YouTube, there are years of Mr. Diamond scaring the crap out of people for no reason.  And my reply is, “where is the recession Jamie, it’s not here, it’s not there, it’s not anywhere to be found!”

In fact, quite the opposite!  According to FactSet on 12-10-2025, 99% of Corporate America, as measured by the S&P 500, has reported Q32025 earnings.  83% were above estimates on earnings and 76% were above estimates on revenue.  A beat/beat of this size is a very positive sign. 

There are many reasons, but here are a few:

1.  Here are three headlines for the past week: 

• Morgan Stanley estimates that fully adopting A.I. could save companies close to $1 trillion a year.
• Stanford’s latest data shows that 78% of global enterprises are now using A.I. in their operations, up from 55% just a year earlier.
• Companies using generative A.I. are seeing some of the highest returns in technology. McKinsey’s survey found that businesses are getting almost $4 of value for $1 invested.

2.  Here are just three pieces of absolutely positive news you likely didn’t see as they were not reported on. These are for just one day, 12-9-2025.

• Palantir secured a $448M US Navy contract for Ship OS.
• Nvidia got the green light to sell H200 chips back into China.
• Microsoft announced major new A.I. and cloud investments in India.

Yet, the business news continues to be negative and focused around the recession that hasn’t recessed and how the market must now be in a bubble!  Still valuations rest near all-time highs.

I understand, it is confusing! However, the good news detailed above will likely continue because the U.S. consumer is our economy!  Per JP Morgan, Guide to the Markets, 9-30-2025, our U.S. consumption of goods and services is 68.3% of the entire economy.

And, those consumers are now born, grown up and ready to consume for the next forty years.  Make special note in the chart below that Gen Y and Gen Z represent 168 million people versus the “Boomers” at a mere 78 million and dying!

Birth Year(s):                1946 - 1964              1965 - 1980              1981 - 1996              1997 -  Now

Ages:                                61 - 79                       45 - 60                      29 - 44                        0 - 28    

                              ($85 Trillion In Net Worth)

Boomers have over $85 TRILLION to spend before they die.  They will never be able to spend it all.  That money will flow down to the next generation who will be very happy to spend it going forward.  Meanwhile, Gen Y at 29-44 years old is picking up consumption speed and the technologies being created will drive overwhelming change, capacity and opportunity.

Earth has never experienced back-to-back generations that are both significantly larger than the first largest generation before them.  The force of the consumer demand is unstoppable and has never been witnessed before.  And it is positive beyond what most can understand.

When I see or hear the negative business news, I replace it with the reality of this mental picture of our economy.

I did not say market valuations go straight up, and I did not say without volatility, yet the data flow suggests the good old USA has a very bright outlook.  Think “Five Year Money” (Read it Here).

I’m interested in your thoughts, comments and observations.  Feel welcome to call, email, or stop by the office and say Hi.

Respectfully,

James O. Lunney, CFP®

CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ Professional  

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