The Weekly Update 2/13/2026™
“As goes January, so goes the year”
January’s equity market performance has historically served as a seasonal indicator, with the “January Barometer” suggesting that early year momentum often carries through the rest of the year.
The idea tracks back to Yale Hirsch, creator of the Stock Trader’s Almanac, who first identified the seasonal pattern in 1972 and famously summed it up with the phrase. “As goes January, so goes the year.”
The adage has stood the test of time, as the S&P 500 has generated an average annual price return of 16.9% in years when January finished in positive territory with the index ending higher 89% of the time period by contrast, when January posted a loss, average annual returns fell to -1.7%, and stocks finished the year higher in only 50% of the instances. (Source LPL research 1-27-2026)
Even if you look down from 30,000 feet, we know that Corporate America, as measured by the S&P 500, has spent a little over 83% of the time since 1927 at or within 10% of the all-time highs. To me, this suggests any pullback, correction, speed bump, call it what you want, is an opportunity to add to investments with any new money.
Yet, as clear as the detail above is this month saw Mr. & Mrs. 401(K) hit the sell button on $95.414 billion in mutual funds.
Here is the trend, Check it out:
- 04/23/2025-05/21/2025 outflow - $49.05 billion
- 05/21/2025-06/25/2025 outflow - $79.91 billion
- 06/25/2025-07/23/2025 outflow - $369.96 billion
- 07/23/2025-08/20/2025 outflow - $74.32 billion
- 08/20/2025-09/24/2025 outflow - $125.55 billion
- 09/24/2025-10/22/2025 outflow - $107.47 billion
- 10/22/2025-11/25/2025 outflow - $124.44 billion
- 11/25/2025-12/23/2025 outflow - $158.86 billion
- 12/23/2025-01/28/2026 outflow - $95.414 billion
That adds up to $1.90 trillion and that's just mutual funds. Add in other equity style investments and I would suggest the selling as well over a few trillion+!
As I write this update 2-11-2026, the DJIA traded at another all-time high. This is an upward trend and “the trend is your friend!.
I did not say market valuations go straight up, and I did not say without volatility, yet the data flow suggests the good old USA has a very bright outlook. Think “Five Year Money” (Read it Here).
Respectfully,
James O. Lunney, CFP®
CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ Professional
*The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. Investing involves risk. Loss, including loss of principal, may occur. No strategy assures success or protects against loss. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
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