Broker Check

The Weekly Update 2/23/2024

| February 23, 2024

The Weekly Update 2/23/2024

After the negative and volatile year Corporate America experienced in 2022, it is necessary to take a moment to zoom out and look at the bigger picture. While it was painful to those who experienced it, we have since recovered and now it just looks like a small bump in the road.

The graphic above illustrates similar, or bigger, “bumps in the road” of the markets since 1871. With the exception of The Great Depression, most of the dips now seem minor, even though we all know they surely weren’t and didn’t feel that way in the moment.  

This is why it is important to have a long-term time horizon and know that we are investing for the future 5 years and not necessarily the next 5 days.

So far in 2024 stocks are off to a positive start, which is particularly enjoyable because of the old adage from the Stock Trader’s Almanac, “as goes January, so goes the year”. Nearly 75 years of historical data shows that when the S&P 500 has risen in January, the average gain for the remainder of the year was about 12%. This January, the S&P 500 was up 1.6%.

Stocks have also historically fared well after the broad index has reached a new all-time high, as the S&P 500 did in January for the first time in over two years. The average 12-month gain after a new high, with more than a 12-month wait between those highs, has been nearly 12%, with gains 13 out of 14 times.

All of this is to reiterate the saying, “when in doubt, zoom out!”. Negative years are mixed in with positive years, and in general, over time, there is an upward bias for those who choose to participate. I anticipate 2024 being a positive year, but of course it won’t go straight up, there will be volatility mixed in as we move forward.


Brittany N. Jarocki, CFP®


The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual.  To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing.  Investing involves risk. Loss, including loss of principal, may occur. No strategy assures success or protects against loss. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.  All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.