Broker Check

The Weekly Update 3/15/2024

| March 15, 2024

The Weekly Update 3/15/2024

 

Gut Check

Since I wrote the November 2023 WSG monthly update of the Seven Signs of a Changing Economy, (read it here), on 11/01/2023, the valuations of Corporate America are up approximately +18.09%.  Granted, nearly half the gain was from a handful of tech stocks, yet the gain is still a gain!

What tends to happen after that…usually… the correction, back and fill, downdraft, etc.  Whatever you want to call it, it is a reduction in the valuations of Corporate America.

I am not suggesting a crash or a bear market, meaning more than a 20% drop in valuations from the last peak, but I am suggesting a “routine sell off”.  Our client family assets under our oversight are well allocated, with shock absorbers in place, for this. 

Remember that:

  • Market valuations “pull back” 5%-10% on average three times per year and 10%, or more, once per year.
  • In an average year the market valuations suffer a decline of 14%.
  • As noted above, the valuations of Corporate America have jumped up over +18.00% in value since November 1, 2023. That represents about two years of average gains in five months.

Don’t fret, panic or worry if the “normal” back and fill comes knocking.  It will not be as scary as the business news will tell you. Instead, I think the knocking will be an opportunity and here at the WSG, we will pounce on that, for now just pray that it comes! 

Yes – these terms are boring – but ever so valuable: 

  • Patience
  • Time
  • Discipline 

In my nearly 43 years, I have learned there is only one solid way to be a successful investor: 

  • Stay on your planning pathway
  • Do not be swayed by rhetoric and fearmongering (it will never end)
  • Do not react to a short-term event with something that carries long-term impact
  • Do not fear storms, expect them
  • Embrace the reality that ‘they” are PART of the requirement to get “there”

I’m interested in your thoughts, comments, and observations.  Feel welcome to call, email, or stop by the office and say Hi.

Respectfully,

James O. Lunney, CFP®

CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ Professional  

Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, a registered investment advisor. Member FINRA/SIPC. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk in all market environments.