The Weekly Update 4/18/2025™
Volatility Is In The Drivers Seat, But Opportunity Is Riding Shotgun!
Tariff talk is causing a round of heartburn for the capital markets, simply because we don’t know what impact they will have on our pocketbooks or the pocketbooks of Corporate America.
As I write this edition of The Weekly Update on April 16, 2025, the U.S. has placed a universal 10% tariff on about 60 countries. China currently has a combined 50% tariff and since they are a large trading partner, the negotiation games have begun.
Emphasis on negotiations!
In prior administrations it is reasonable to think negations on other important issues were equally messy, yet we citizens were not exposed to the noise. So, now with the promised transparency we are exposed to, and it appears at least in the capital markets, it is disturbing to observe. That’s why I call it messy, right up until it isn’t!
As of today, “Liberation Day” is a whopping 14 days old! If I asked you a month ago how long you thought this tariff resolution process would take, you should have replied somewhere between 3-6 weeks, and I would have agreed.
Hold that thought – we are 2 weeks into a 3-6 week process. I have a gut feeling that sometime before the end of week six we see a new headline that reads something like this,
“China and the U.S. Announce Historic Trade Agreement, Dropping ALL Tariffs”
How do you think the capital markets would react to that headline and how quickly?
My guess is it would be with a rather dramatic increase in prices, and it would be immediate, i.e. now is the time to get on the train the fearful investors have abandon. The investor train “always”, careful Jim, leaves the station for the land of opportunity almost empty. Don’t let that happen.
“All Aboard!”
I’m interested in your thoughts, comments and observations. Feel welcome to call, email, or stop by the office and say Hi.
Respectfully,
James O. Lunney, CFP®
CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ Professional
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