The Weekly Update 4/25/2025™ 

Our news sources seem to be fixed on the tariff war and how it will cause a recession where we all die cold in the dark.  

The press reports over and over about how consumer sentiment is in the tank and dropping fast.  In the April edition of The Seven Signs of a Changing Economy™ (Read it Here), I wrote in Sign #1, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) that consumer sentiment has little correlation to actual consumer spending.  In other words, consumers can feel bad and still spend, spend and spend.

But, here is how I know that.

It turns out retail spending came in “far better than expected”!

Then the same news source must have had the editor walk in and the headline was changed to this.

If you really believe the masses jumped up and went out to buy more “stuff” for next month, to avoid paying a tariff, I have a bridge I would love to sell you.

Again, this twisting of the news is just how the business news rolls nowadays.  They must do it to lock in your eyeballs long enough to sell you whatever they are selling.

Don’t fall for it!

As of this month, consumer spending is up, factory orders are up, jobs are available, and inflation is down to the Feds target rate.

I suspect the current market valuation speed bump we are in will pass, and quickly we will see a headline like this one, which I just made up.
“China and the U.S. Announce Historic Trade Agreement, Dropping ALL Tariffs”.

It could happen, be prepared for higher valuations ahead.  

I’m interested in your thoughts, comments and observations. Feel welcome to call, email, or stop by the office and say Hi.

Respectfully,

James O. Lunney, CFP®
CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ Professional  

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