The Weekly Update 5/08/2026™
Written by Brittany Jarocki CFP, (Jim's business partner, daughter and the succession plan Jim hopes he never needs).
We all did it at the pool when we were kids – that is, try to hold our respective [volley, basket, soccer] large rubber ball under water with our body weight. We could usually balance on top of it for a few seconds before the ball eventually slipped out from underneath us and pushed out of the water and into the air with force.
Now, if the ball was somewhat deflated, weak, or had a hole in it somewhere, it was much easier to hold down. But a healthy, full, buoyant ball would put up a fight.
This is no different than what we are seeing in the financial markets today. The ball, our economy, is strong and resilient as measured by GDP, Unemployment, and the CPI Inflation rate.
Per the BEA (Bureau of Economic Analysis) GDP is growing at an annual rate of 0.5% for Q4 2025, which is the most recent data point. i.e. GDP is still expanding.
The current US Unemployment rate as measured by the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) sits at 4.3% as of March 2026, which is down slightly from 4.4% in February 2026. This tells us the labor market is healthy, as 4.3% is consistent with a stable economy.
The current US CPI Inflation rate is 3.3% year over year for March 2026. It saw a rise in March due to increased Energy prices, which will be passed on to customers. This has made purchasing power a bit tighter, but it is not sounding the alarms. Yet.
These three factors are the air in the ball that the conflict in Iran is holding under water. Each time that we have been given the slightest bit of “good news” or talk of peace, cease fire, or working towards a resolution, we have seen strong performance to the upside in the financial markets. This is not indicative of a bear market or a recession. This shows us that the bulls are here, ready and ready to pounce. It is very likely that upon resolution of the conflict with Iran, the ball being forcefully held under water will come rocketing to and through the surface.
We remain thoughtful with our client’s allocations and are ready to take action as needed.
I did not say market valuations go straight up, and I did not say without volatility, yet the data flow suggests the good old USA has a very bright outlook.
As always, I am interested in your thoughts, comments, and questions.
Respectfully,
James O. Lunney, CFP®
CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ Professional
*The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. Investing involves risk. Loss, including loss of principal, may occur. No strategy assures success or protects against loss. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
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