The Weekly Update 5/16/2025™
I Love This Chart!
The Chart below is the eight-week moving average of the American Association of Individual Investors Sentiment poll for investors who are bullish (positive) on the investment outlook for the next six months.
As you observe this chart note (1) nearly 80% of investors surveyed were not positive on the outlook, (2) we are at the same level of disgust as the October 2022 lows.
Now please take a moment to click here (Read it Here) and read The Special Update of 4/04/2025 I emailed you. Specifically, on page 3, read what has historically happened next.
On April 18th, 2025, in The Weekly Update (Read it Here) I wrote this: “sometime before the 3–6-week process of negotiating the China trade tariffs we will see a headline that reads something like this;
“China and the U.S. Announce Historic Trade Agreement, Dropping ALL Tariffs”.
Only slightly off around that word “all”, but close enough as a like and positive headline dropped on Sunday May 11, 2025, and the investor train left the station. Mostly empty of investors, as usual, from the low levels of optimism above.
You must come to grips with the concept that the news sources must keep your eyeballs long enough to sell you whatever they are selling, and they know they can “Hook You” with fear. It has been going on forever aka “if it bleeds it leads”!
Too bad the media doesn’t focus on solutions in the works!
- UK trade tariff deal – done
- Vietnam trade deal – done
- Japan trade deal – done
- China trade deal – 99% done
When all the dust settles on the B.S. tariff “trade problems” by, let’s say the end of summer, about 100 days from now, they will be mostly complete and solved.
Let me ask you this, “if you knew the odds were very high that a potential problem would be solved in about 100 days from now, would you relax and enjoy your life more?” I guess, yes!
The tariff “problem” will be in the rearview mirror in about 100 days, so I suggest we all relax and enjoy what could be some well-deserved investment returns, as I expect them to happen again, as outlined in page 3 in the first link above.
I’m interested in your thoughts, comments and observations. Feel welcome to call, email, or stop by the office and say Hi.
Respectfully,
James O. Lunney, CFP®
CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ Professional
*The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. Investing involves risk. Loss, including loss of principal, may occur. No strategy assures success or protects against loss. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Copyright © 2025. The Wealth Strategies Group. All rights reserved.