The Weekly Update 6/19/2026™

Written by Brad Cooke CFP, (Jim's business partner and Son-in-Law)

The Cooke Compass is a monthly update where geopolitical events, US political news, and general market updates are provided for those seeking a better understanding of how and why you’re invested.

Politics

U.S. policymakers are focusing on trade measures, including targeted tariffs on certain technology and manufacturing imports, along with incentives to strengthen domestic production in areas like semiconductors, defense, and energy. These steps have encouraged some companies to shift supply chains back to the U.S. and boost investment in American facilities, though they’ve also created short-term challenges in global trade. What’s at top of mind for most investors are midterm elections scheduled for November 2026. Debates in Congress over budgets, taxes, and regulations are likely to bring market swings (as they usually do). Globally, continued tensions in the Middle East are affecting energy markets, but U.S. policy decisions remain the biggest influence for most American investors.

Economics

The U.S. economy is growing at a moderate pace, with real GDP expansion projected around 3% for Q2 2026. This growth is supported by business investments, steady consumer spending, and a relatively stable job market where unemployment sits at about 4.3%. Although this displays a balanced labor market, no doubt hiring has slowed in many sectors. Inflation has ticked up to roughly 3.8%, mainly due to higher energy prices linked to international disruptions via US/Iran conflict. While tariffs are adding some cost pressures, the overall economy appears resilient. On the global side, these energy issues are creating headwinds which we will continue to monitor.

Sentiment

 Investor sentiment remains mostly positive, with major stock indexes holding strong levels driven by healthy corporate profits, especially in tech and AI with expectations for continued innovation. Long term investors are largely looking past short-term geopolitical risks and focusing on solid company fundamentals. However, consumer confidence has fallen to multi-year lows as many households feel squeezed by higher costs for housing, food, and gas amid the energy price increases. This split between strong market performance and cautious everyday sentiment creates a “wall of worry” dynamic. Institutional and managed money remains optimistic about growth potential, while the broader public is more careful. In this setting, investment strategies often favor high-quality U.S. companies with strong competitive positions.

I did not say market valuations go straight up, and I did not say without volatility, yet the data flow suggests the good old USA has a very bright outlook. 

Thank you for your trust and confidence. As always, I am interested in your thoughts, comments, and questions.

Respectfully,

James O. Lunney, CFP®

CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ Professional  

*The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual.  To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing.  Investing involves risk. Loss, including loss of principal, may occur. No strategy assures success or protects against loss. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.  All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.

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