The Weekly Update 6/6/2025™ 

“It’s The Consumer Driving Our Economy”!

Sign #1 of “The Seven Signs of a Changing Economy™” is the most economically impactful of the Seven.  Long time readers know that per J.P. Morgan Guide to the Markets, March 31, 2025, report, consumer spending represents 68.3% of our entire economy!  That’s exactly why it’s Sign #1.

The same media sources that have been screaming the recession is almost here, for the last 35 months, continue to scare people with that plus tariffs, taxes, political “stuff” etc.

So, it was interesting to see Bank of America’s CEO report this:

“The US economy is way stronger than the experts think.”

Then Amazon’s CEO, who has a front row seat to every retail click, cart and purchase around the world said, “tariffs haven’t dented consumer spending”.

Yes, this is only a two person data set.  However, both have data flow dashboards that would make a SpaceX control board jealous!

Being a “data mining” nerd I wanted proof.  Just a quick search on retail sales via the Yardeni Research website and boom, this pops right up.

That is a twenty-year snapshot of retail sales.  Let your eyes drift from right to left and observe that since the Covid whiplash, retail has only been stronger two times, maybe three if you squint, in the last twenty years!

The business news can report doom and gloom on about any subject you want to look at, but if you cut through all the complexity, the common denominator to all economic growth is people spending money on stuff.  They are spending like there is no tomorrow and yet the Federal Reserve reports there is still $8 trillion in household cash and short-term securities. That is economic rocket fuel!

Now would be a good time to click on the link and read the piece I wrote and posted to TWSG website as The Weekly Update 5/30/2025.  (Read it Here)

This is all before the benefits of A.I. show up.  Our U.S. Economy is in a growth cycle that is demographically based and therefore almost impossible to stop, and it has over 30 years to go!  This cycle of change, demand, growth and innovation is epic.  It is time to invest for your bigger financial future, right now!

I did not say market valuations go straight up, and I did not say without volatility, yet the data flow suggests the good old USA has a very bright outlook.  Think “Five Year Money” (Read it Here).

I’m interested in your thoughts, comments and observations.  Feel welcome to call, email, or stop by the office and say Hi.

Respectfully,

James O. Lunney, CFP®
CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ Professional 

*The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual.  To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing.  Investing involves risk. Loss, including loss of principal, may occur. No strategy assures success or protects against loss. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.  All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.

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