The Weekly Update 8/16/2024

Where Is That Recession?

Since I wrote and posted The Weekly Update for 8/2/2024 to TWSG website (Read it Here), the Fear Greed Index has dropped into the “Extreme Fear” level.  Down from 39 to 16 out of 100!

For over two years our business news has been warning us about the coming recession.  Which I have named “The Recession That Didn’t Recess™”.

In 1974 U.S. economist Julius Shiskin created the word “recession” and defined it as “two consecutive quarters of economic contraction”.  As a biproduct of Covid we did experience two contracting quarters of economic growth, but I guess the press was busy reporting on the end of the world, so that recession went under reported.

But, The Recession That Didn’t Recess™, is very high on the reporting scare list, so let’s take a look at the fact based, source citied reality instead.

It would be fair to say that a +2.9% growth rate on a $28.629 Trillion economy is pretty solid!

For a moment let’s pretend the widely forecasted recession hits tonight at midnight (these bad things always happen in the dark, so they are more scary) and let’s also pretend it is the worst recession in over 50 years at a -5% contraction. 

Okay, that means our largest economy ever on planet earth would contract from $28.629 Trillion to about $27.1 Trillion or all the way back to the level of last summer. 

Here are the GDP facts from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), back to July of 2023. 

If I recall, our economy was doing fine last summer at $27.063 Trillion!

I am not in the habit of telling people what to do, but if I were, I would tell you to stop listening to the news and focus on the source cited, historically correct facts like The Seven Signs of a Changing Economy™ that I write and send you each month, sans August.

Just remember, the media’s job is to keep you scared enough to keep you tuned to their station!  At TWSG our job is to help you create your bigger financial future.  Try not to let the media steal that from you!

I’m interested in your thoughts, comments, and observations.  Feel welcome to call, email, or stop by the office and say Hi.

Respectfully,

James O. Lunney, CFP®

CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ Professional  

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