The Weekly Update 9/12/2025™
The Recession That Didn’t Recess!
I came across the chart below from LSEG DataStream and the Yardeni Research website. It is a perfect graphic for the probability of an economic recession occurring.
Notice that April of 2025 notched in at 65%! Guess what else was happening in April of 2025? Yup, the valuations of Corporate America dropping over -15%!! Turns out investors scared themselves into “safe” bonds and money markets just in time to miss that +25% rebound in valuations.
If you are one of the fearful, I strongly suggest you stare at the chart below for as long as it takes for you to have an “I get it” moment.
2028 will be here in a blink! If you still think AI is some fleeting moment that will drift away in the dark, you could not be more wrong if you tried. That $1.3 trillion is likely too low and staggering for sure.
Change is happening so fast and getting faster that focus, patience and disciple will be needed to stay the course, and the course is about as good as I have ever seen.
I did not say market valuations go straight up, and I did not say without volatility, yet the data flow suggests the good old USA has a very bright outlook. Think “Five Year Money” (Read it Here).
I’m interested in your thoughts, comments and observations. Feel welcome to call, email, or stop by the office and say Hi.
Respectfully,
James O. Lunney, CFP®
CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ Professional
*The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. Investing involves risk. Loss, including loss of principal, may occur. No strategy assures success or protects against loss. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
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