The Weekly Update 9/19/2025™
Afraid of What?Afraid of What?
In the September 2025 edition of The Seven Signs of a Changing Economy™ (Read it Here), I wrote in detail about Mr. & Mrs. 401(K) being net sellers of their shares of ownership in Corporate America every one of the last twelve months.
Not sure what they are so afraid of as every major index closed at a record high as of last Friday September 12, 2025, and that’s not all that’s positive.
✓The 10-year bond yield fell to 4.00%
✓Cash levels are at all-time record highs
✓Money markets alone now hold over 7.6 trillion (cash looking for a return north of 0%)
✓Earnings of Corporate America rest at all-time highs after back-to-back-to-back +10% quarterly growth.
Still not sure what they are afraid of but as of September 10, 2025, 28% have a negative outlook on investing for the next six months. Here is the detail from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) as of September 10th.
Two observations:Two observations:
1. Notice only 28% of investors have a positive outlook! Thus almost 3 out of 4 are not positive….at all time highs in the markets!
2. Also observe on the top right line/box that almost 50% of investors are full on negative on the outlook. Not middle of the road, not sure, but straight up negative.
It has been my experience that when investors are this negative in their outlook and sitting on some of the highest cash levels ever, markets don’t crash. There can be a normal “back and fill”, “correction”, “sell off” (or whatever else you would like to name it) at any time and for almost any reason.
With this much fear combined with that amount of money combined with a backdrop of earnings growth double digit back-to-back-to-back for three quarters, I am personally very positive on the outlook!
I did not say market valuations go straight up, and I did not say without volatility, yet the data flow suggests the good old USA has a very bright outlook. Think “Five Year Money” (Read it Here).
I’m interested in your thoughts, comments and observations. Feel welcome to call, email, or stop by the office and say Hi.
Respectfully,James O. Lunney, CFP®
CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ Professional
*The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. Investing involves risk. Loss, including loss of principal, may occur. No strategy assures success or protects against loss. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
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