The Weekly Update 9/26/2025™Written by Brittany Jarocki CFP, (Jim's business partner, daughter and the succession plan Jim hopes he never needs).
The AAII Sentiment Survey is a survey to gauge where the general public feels the stock market will be in the next 6 months. The image above shows bullish sentiment gaining 33% between weeks ending 9/10/25 and 9/17/25. Of course, 9/17/25 is the day that the Federal Reserve announced a rate cut of 0.25%.
The Fed’s rate cut decision was based on evidence a slowing economy. Keep in mind that the economy has been red hot, so a slowdown is warranted, perhaps even healthy.
Money flows to where it is treated best. With interest rates decreasing, it is likely that money that is currently invested in fixed income assets such as treasury funds and bonds will begin to move into mutual funds and stocks. This has the opportunity to propel markets higher.
That said, for the same week ending 9/17/25 we see Bearish sentiment at 42.4%, which is a tick higher than the Bullish sentiment at 41.7%. So, while Mr. and Mrs. 401k are still so scared they are stopped dead in their tracks, markets continue to reach all-time highs, signaling that institutional money (large funds, company buy backs, etc.) is leading the way.
I expect a strong finish to 2025, but that won’t come without volatility, news headlines, and scare tactics along the way!
I’m interested in your thoughts, comments and observations. Feel welcome to call, email, or stop by the office and say Hi.
Respectfully,
James O. Lunney, CFP®
CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ Professional
*The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
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