In the September 2023 update for the Seven Signs of a Changing Economy™ (read it here), only two signs remain negative, The Leading Economic Index Sign #3 and Durable Goods Spending Sign #5. The other five have all turned positive.
As you might guess, that leads to a few comments around how could that be, as clearly the news is mostly terrible!
Remember, we are closing out the weakest week of the weakest month of the twelve. So, volatility will likely continue, yet start to reduce, as we transition into November. November is one of the best performance months of the twelve.
The most asked question lately is around the U.S. dollar being replaced by some “other” currency or crypto.
If even close to true, why does the dollar dominate global payments?
Dollar Usage in Global Payments in July Rises to Record, Swift Says:
- Some 46% of all Swift FX transactions involved the dollar
- Euro’s share falls to record low: Yuan’s exceeded 3%
Independent, source sited, quantifiable fact. Note in that factoid that is a new record trade in U.S. dollars and is 12x greater than the Chinese Yuan.
Not sure how journalists get away with reporting totally false news headlines around the decline of the U.S. Dollar.
Flash back four months and recall the scary headlines to “Sell in Many and Go Away”! It has been a volatile summer, but summers usually are. That said, this summer was also rewarding.
Check it out:
The Trend looks pretty decent, I think! But Mr. & Mrs. 401(K) remain convinced the end of the world will soon arrive. So much so, that $14 trillion of U.S. equity funds have been sold and money market funds have gone up to the highest ever in history, at $7 trillion. That is just money markets and does not include trillions more in bank deposits, CD’s, Treasury bills, notes, bonds etc.
According to Refinitiv Lipper Fund Flow as of 9-15-2023, ZERO new investments have flowed into funds YTD 2023, as $17 billion have been removed.
As difficult as volatility can be, it has historically been the launch pad to the next trend up.
At The Wealth Strategies Group, we are still being thoughtful, as we carefully and intentionally continue to invest the cash we raised from our protective selling last year.
I’m interested in your thoughts, comments, and observations. Feel welcome to call, email, or stop by the office and say Hi.
James O. Lunney, CFP®
CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ Professional
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, a registered investment advisor. Member FINRA/SIPC. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk in all market environments.