Have you seen the following news headline in any pieces you read, programs you listen to or watch?
“Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) up 5,929.74 points (+20.69%) in the last 34 trade sessions!”
How about this one?
“DJIA closes out November 2022 just 1,899 points (-5.20%) below the all-time high!”
Both are quantifiably true and fact-based statements. I just created these headlines as of the writing of this update on 11/30/2022.
The reason you have not seen headlines like these anywhere is because:
- It is good news
- Doesn’t scare you to death
- Therefore, doesn’t hold your eyeballs long enough to sell you whatever “they” are selling
In our effort “to not make our client family poor”, we did raise cash early this year. As true and accurate as my headlines above are, I suspect we are not “all clear” on this “back and fill” process quite yet.
However, there is a surprise hanging out on the horizon, say about spring of 2023. The surprise is the Fed’s fastest and largest increase in interest rates will have landed us in a recession. The Fed has, by all normal measurements, overdone the slow down the economy process.
The surprise will be how quickly the recession ends as the Fed backs off and how well Corporate America adjusts to all of it.
As my friend, Mike Williams, put it:
“What if the U.S. economy is now so diverse and driven by such strong demand and even stronger workforce, that it can indeed withstand and overcome the headwinds we are facing, without tremendous damage?”
Well stated, I think!
Our WSG client family will now start to see changes in our asset allocations and investment positions as we make changes to reduce capital gains tax impact, i.e., tax swaps. In addition, we will, as stated here many times, be investing our cash a little at a time thoughtfully, on purpose and intentionally.
As we look back from 2027 to today, remember “Five Year Money” (Read it Here). The next few quarters could be where we plant the seeds for potentially great future returns. We just won’t know it for a few years.
I’m interested in your thoughts, comments, and observations. Feel welcome to call, email or stop by the office and say Hi.
James O. Lunney, CFP®
CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ Professional
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, a registered investment advisor. Member FINRA/SIPC. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk in all market environments.