Broker Check

The Weekly Update for 6/16/2023

| June 16, 2023

Be sure to take a moment to go to the WSG website and after clicking on my photo it will roll you to my methodology and philosophy.  In the verbiage are green links to the Seven Signs of a Changing Economy™ and The Weekly Update.  Be sure to read this month’s edition of the Seven Signs as there are a few very important changes that have taken place in The Seven Signs!  Sign #1, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), has increased from negative to neutral and looks to be on its way to positive once again – a game changing, yet early, sign of change!  Sign #3 (LEI), the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index, is either delayed in its now over one-year prediction of a recession or making itself irrelevant.

In Sign #4, New Jobs created, the data is messy!  But, in a labor force of 156 million people a rounding error of a few hundred thousand jobs does not move the needle all that much!

Sign #6, our gauge of how much Corporate America is ringing at the cash register continues to blow the collective minds of economists.  As we shared here over the last several months the reduction in manufacturing input costs over the entire last twelve months (“Hello, Fed”) has helped to push the earnings of Corporate America to an all-time high!  Thus, in Sign #7, Inflation/Deflation and GDP, the data stream clearly and easily pushes the Sign to neutral and soon to be positive from being negative for several months!

Please know these are “sea changes”, i.e., slow moving!  We are not out of the woods all at once but, we are nibbling at a few favorite investment positions that appear to offer growth going forward, but our WSG rules have not changed!

They are:

  • To not make our client family poor
  • Don’t fight the Fed
  • Five-year money (Read it Here)
  • No one knows the future

We will stay focused on the Fed’s comments, as they have been most transparent in their speeches and via telegraphs from Nick Timiraos (just do a search) during the Fed’s “blackout” dates.

From my point of view this month’s update of The Seven Signs of a Changing Economy™ represents a change in the data flow from generally negative to neutral with a bias toward positive.

I’m interested in your thoughts, comments, and observations.  Feel welcome to call, email, or stop by the office and say Hi.


James O. Lunney, CFP®



Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, a registered investment advisor. Member FINRA/SIPC. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk in all market environments.