The Weekly Update 10/23/2026™
Created by Jim Lunney, CFP®
Earnings Up / Fear Up
These should be mutually exclusive events! In a "normal" world you tend to see the valuations of Corporate America, as measured by the S&P 500, trend up (or down) based on how profitable the companies are.
Observe the relentless upward momentum in S&P 500 earnings in the charts below. As you do, make note that in just the last six months the estimate for Q3 2026 earnings has increased from +17.4% to +24.6%. May not look like much, yet that represents a +41.40% increase. Six months +41.40 on top of a solidly great +17.40% estimate in just six months ago. Outstanding!
It gets better! Here are the earnings estimates for Q4 2026!
A +27% earnings growth rate is unbelievable! Rare air, for sure! Historically, market value would follow and be up +27% (+/- 5%, or so) too!
But, Mr. + Mrs. 401(k) remain as fearful as ever.
The Fear chart is dated 10-2-2026, yet it remains the same as I write this update on 10-21-2026. That's an unreasonable amount of fear when compared to what Corporate America is creating in profits. Profits, I will suggest, that are a result of the incredible productivity being added from technology and AI (or S.I.)!
And by the way — that recession we were told for the last five years that is right around the corner... "there it is right there, you can see it" (Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan), yeah right! Sans that short COVID hiccup where the world shut down for a few months, we have not had a recession since 2009. That's 17 years!
At TWSG, we will continue to focus on the facts that are independent and source cited. Opinions, observations and bologna news are given exactly ZERO value here.
As always, your WSG team remains focused, thoughtful, and on purpose as we continue the ongoing process of allocating The WSG client family assets entrusted to our oversight.
I did not say market valuations go straight up, and I did not say without volatility, yet the data flow suggests the good old USA has a very bright outlook.
P.S. I write and post The Weekly Update every Friday versus emailing so I don't fill-up the client family's email inboxes. If you'd like to read them each Friday, just go to TWSG website at https://www.wealthstratgroup.com. Once there, click on my photo and it takes you to my investment philosophy and methodology page. In that verbiage are green hot links to The Weekly Updatelibrary as well as the library for the monthly piece I write and e-blast each month, The Seven Signs of a Changing Economy.™
Thank you for your trust and confidence. As always, I am interested in your thoughts, comments, and observations. Feel welcome to call, email or stop by the office and say Hi.
Respectfully,
James O. Lunney, CFP®
CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ Professional
The Wealth Strategies Group
7761 Shaffer Parkway, Suite 100
Littleton, CO 80127
Ph. 303-933-2107 Fax 303-933-7175
*The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. Investing involves risk. Loss, including loss of principal, may occur. No strategy assures success or protects against loss. All performance referenced is historical and there is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
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