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Friday, March 1, 2024

The Weekly Update 3/1/2024   Fiction versus Facts!   Unfortunately, last night I walked through our front room while Elaine had the “news” on and as I walked past, I heard two lies being told by the low I.Q....

 

Friday, February 23, 2024

The Weekly Update 2/23/2024 After the negative and volatile year Corporate America experienced in 2022, it is necessary to take a moment to zoom out and look at the bigger picture. While it was painful to those who experienced it, we...

 

Friday, February 16, 2024

The Weekly Update 2/16/2024   That could be a BGO!   February is usually one of the poorest performing months of the twelve.  In prior election years February has traditionally been a downer. This year February has been...

 

Friday, February 9, 2024

The Weekly Update 2/09/2024   If you don’t recall reading The Weekly Update for 11/03/2023, you might have missed the three key reasons I suggested the values of Corporate America were about to turn higher quickly.  But...

 

Friday, February 2, 2024

The Weekly Update 2/02/2024   “The End of The Story”   You won’t see the headline below in your business news because I just made it up!  “Jerome Powell’s Federal Reserve Succeeded!”...

 

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Friday, January 26, 2024

     The chart above highlights the top 10 years that are most correlated to 2023 based on their weekly return progression. As you can see, 1955 and 1985 are the closest comparisons, both with a correlation of 0.89....

 

Friday, January 19, 2024

The Weekly Update 1/19/2024   The press, along with a few newsletters, have created “the next monster”.  Remember, the press has two, maybe twelve, new monsters they invent to sell stuff by keeping your eyeballs...

 

Friday, January 12, 2024

The Weekly Update 1/12/2024   I am not sure why, but lately I have had a number of client family questions wanting to find out what I am thinking about all that consumer debt.  The same consumer debt the coneheads on your...

 

Friday, January 5, 2024

The Weekly Update 1/05/2024   Two Years of Nowhere!   For the last year you have read in The Weekly Update™ and The Seven Signs of a Changing Economy™, how I have compared 2022-2023 to 1994-1995. Back in 1994-1995...

 

Friday, December 29, 2023

The Weekly Update 12/29/2023   Yes, 2024 could be a very happy New Year! Never, in your life have you been able to say, “there is over $200 billion of manufacturing construction happening in the USA”, but very quietly...

 

Friday, December 22, 2023

The Weekly Update 12-22-2023 In every 2023 issue of The Seven Signs of a Changing Economy™, I have written under Sign #2, Inflation/Deflation and GDP, how inflation was dropping like a rock.  Research firm LSEG Datastream...

 

Friday, December 15, 2023

The Weekly Update 12/15/2023      Written by Brittany Jarocki There’s no question that everyone was aware of the housing boom that happened from 2020-2022. Not only were people scrambling to purchase any home they...

 

Friday, December 8, 2023

The Weekly Update 12/08/2023   Onshoring Graphic   By now, I think we have all heard that Corporate America is bringing much of the manufacturing process back to the USA.  This is often referred to in the news as...

 

Friday, December 1, 2023

The Weekly Update 12/01/2023   “The Roaring 20’s, Version 2.0”   The Recession we have been told is right there, look at it, has not arrived after two long years. What most investors have completely missed...

 

Wednesday, November 22, 2023

 

Friday, November 17, 2023

The Weekly Update 11/17/2023 Rocket Fuel   Today you will receive an email from The Wealth Strategies Group with the monthly update for The Seven Signs of a Changing Economy™.  Sign #2, Money Flow is so good that I have...

 

Friday, November 10, 2023

The Weekly Update 11/10/2023 Good News!   If you browse your favorite news source, you will likely come away with thoughts and supposed facts, of how bad the investment markets are. Bad investor sentiment High stress levels...

 

Friday, November 3, 2023

The Weekly Update 11/3/2023 “He Who Sells What Isn’t His’n Must Buy It Back Or Go To Pris’n.”  Daniel Drew on Selling Short, late 1800’s.   A Short Sale is when someone thinks a...

 

Friday, October 27, 2023

The Weekly Update 10/27/2023 The Fed Has “Spooked” The Herd That is about all I have for this scary Halloween weekly update! If you think this scary October market is different from Octobers before it, just know it is not!...

 

Friday, October 20, 2023

The Weekly Update 10/20/2023 Minus seven companies, the valuations are down! As we started this week of October 16, 2023, the valuation of Corporate America, as measured by the S&P 500, is up +12.65% year to date (YTD). Is it really!...

 

Friday, October 13, 2023

The Weekly Update 10/13/2023 68.30% For those of you who have been reading these updates for years, you know that the above, 68.30% is the percentage of our entire economy derived from Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE). ...

 

Friday, October 6, 2023

The Weekly Update 10/6/2023 Knock, Knock! As we close out September 2023 Corporate America, as measured by the S&P 500, made a lower low for 9 days straight! So, fear in the air once again.  Here is a snapshot of the Fear & Greed...

 

Friday, September 29, 2023

The Weekly Update 9/29/2023 Interesting Times In the September 2023 update for the Seven Signs of a Changing Economy™ (read it here), only two signs remain negative, The Leading Economic Index Sign #3 and Durable Goods Spending...

 

Friday, September 22, 2023

The Weekly Update 9/22/2023 Bad news is bad news, but good news is also bad news! It is a rare time in the news media, as most everything is being presented as negative news. Perhaps this is a good time to review the things that...

 

Friday, September 15, 2023

The Weekly Update 9/15/2023 When we printed the July update for The Seven Signs of a Changing Economy™, money flowing in had pushed the S&P 500 into a “bullish” (positive) performance trend.  It did this by...

 

Friday, September 8, 2023

The Weekly Update 9/8/2023 The Wall of Money! Very quietly the U.S. Government has passed several economic stimulus acts.  Specifically, The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), The Chips and Science Act (CSA) and the Infrastructure...

 

Friday, September 1, 2023

The Weekly Update 9/1/2023 This week’s edition of “The Weekly Update” is being written by Brittany Jarocki, CFP®.  Brittany is the succession plan I hope I never need (I intend to die at my desk at age 123),...

 

Friday, August 25, 2023

More Fed Speak! I am writing this edition of The Weekly Update on Wednesday, August 23, 2023, just a few days before Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has his press conference on Friday, August 25, 2023. It seems pretty easy to guess what he...

 

Friday, August 18, 2023

“Bad News”! It seems that each time I see or hear a news outlet, all I hear is bad news.  You may remember the recession talk started in early 2022, when we were technically in an actual recession, but I digress. The...

 

Friday, August 11, 2023

Inflation Fading, Profits Rising! It is a touch ironic that the same Corporate America that the financial news had falling off a cliff due to inflation continues to perform really well! Huh! Nothing in the news about the “good...

 

Friday, August 4, 2023

There has been a lot of heavy subject matter in the past few Financial Fitness write ups, so I decided to keep this one light. The summer months in the financial markets are also generally slow on data, so a perfect time for this. As...

 

Friday, July 28, 2023

WAIT FOR IT! A few years ago, I wrote several updates around the reality of “onshoring”.  Many U.S. companies from steel to technology were bringing their manufacturing processing back home to the U.S. That reality is...

 

Friday, July 21, 2023

Note to self, about the most positive (bullish) thing a market can do is go up!  There are many guidelines used as reference points in the asset management industry.  One is that markets tend to “officially” enter...

 

Friday, July 14, 2023

The Weekly Update 7/14/2023Below I have listed Sign #7 of July 2023’s Seven Signs of a Changing Economy™ for your review.  It is very important to “see” inflation leaving while the economy continues to grow...

 

Friday, July 7, 2023

 

Thursday, June 29, 2023

A Game of Chicken!The Conference Board is the creator of the Leading Economic Index (LEI), which is Sign #3 in our monthly update, The Seven Signs of a Changing Economy™.  In May 2023 the LEI reported the 14th straight month...

 

Friday, June 23, 2023

The Weekly Update 6/23/2023In the June update of The Seven Signs of a Changing Economy I did a deep dive into the declining trend in the core inputs to inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI).  (Read it Here)There...

 

Friday, June 16, 2023

Be sure to take a moment to go to the WSG website and after clicking on my photo it will roll you to my methodology and philosophy.  In the verbiage are green links to the Seven Signs of a Changing Economy™ and The Weekly...

 

Friday, June 9, 2023

Five Big Engines and 495 Cabooses!The S&P 500 is the most commonly accepted performance measuring index for Corporate America. YTD it is up about 10%.If you were to back out the top five, maybe six, large cap technology stocks the...

 

Friday, June 2, 2023

Have you ever heard the saying, “the days go by slowly, but the years fly by”? It’s the notion that if we focus on the “everyday” we can get caught up in minutia of daily details that may bog us down. But,...

 

Friday, May 26, 2023

“Better than Expected”…Done!In The Weekly Update for 5/5/2023 (Read it Here) I titled the issue “Better than Expected” and then detailed how, in my opinion, the earnings of Corporate America, as measured...

 

Friday, May 19, 2023

“Next Monster Please”In the Weekly Update for 4/21/2023 (Read it Here) I detailed that the next monster to scare the market would be the “debt ceiling” crisis.  Well, here we are about a month later and the...

 

Friday, May 12, 2023

As a WSG family member, you will start to see small additions to your asset allocation as we tip toe slowly into our more positive investment positions.  As you will read below, we are not out of the economic woods, yet some of...

 

Friday, May 5, 2023

The Weekly Update 5/5/2023Surprise!  “Better Than Expected”In the piece I wrote for The Weekly Update on 4/7/4023 (Read it Here) I suggested that the 1Q2023 earnings season for Corporate America, as measured by the S&P...

 

Friday, April 28, 2023

The Weekly Update 4/28/2023The graphic above shows the different account outcomes of four different types of systematic investors or savers. These four hypothetical people invest the same amount of money each month, but at different...

 

Friday, April 21, 2023

Since I wrote The Weekly Update on 4/7/2023 (Read it Here) we have already seen many of the earnings headlines print just like I reported, “Better Than Expected”.As that earnings monster is being slayed, along with the...

 

Friday, April 14, 2023

Money FlowIn January 2023 the Refinitiv Lipper U.S. Fund Flows reported -$4.21 billion out of U.S. mutual funds.  February and March piled on with -$14.6 billion and -$23.435 billion, respectively.The American Association of...

 

Friday, April 7, 2023

The Weekly Update 4/7/2023Better Than Expected!In last week’s update (3/31/2023), pasted in below, I listed some facts that we should look at one more time, as they are positive.Perhaps more importantly they suggest something we...

 

Friday, March 31, 2023

Today I returned from a long weekend to review "The News"!  Of course, all of the same old "monsters" were there!  BUT I could not find any of the real-life facts like these below in the news. Hmm…Markets...

 

Friday, March 24, 2023

Fed Speak!On Monday March 20,2023 I sent the piece below as part of a note to a long-time client.  It was around the expectations of what the Fed would do on 3/22/2023, which happens to be today, and is also the day I write The...

 

Friday, March 17, 2023

Just when we thought the news could not get worse…!Over the next several months we will all learn together that the folks in charge of the now failed Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank of New York were not all that good...

 

Friday, March 10, 2023

During volatile times in the market, and even during less-volatile times, it is important to remember that there are some factors that are out of our control as both financial advisors and investors. Of course, it is much easier to...

 

Friday, March 3, 2023

The tug-of-war continues between the Leading Economic Index (LEI), which measures (via ten economic inputs) what our economic backdrop will be in six to nine months (September 2023 – December 2023) and our Gross Domestic Product...

 

Friday, February 24, 2023

Exhausting! We now find ourselves closing in on the end of the fourteenth month of this Bear (negative) market. Just like the Tech Wreck market from March of 2000 through October 2002 when I wrote the now...

 

Friday, February 17, 2023

On 10/29/2021 I wrote The Weekly Update titled “Inflation: A Look Back Could Help as We Look Forward” (Read it Here)In that update I detailed that money supply causes inflation and made the case that at that time it was far...

 

Friday, February 10, 2023

My view of the current investment tug-of-war is that the future interest rate outlook is becoming more of a known.  The recession fear of how deep, and for how long, is getting less cloudy.Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell...

 

Friday, February 3, 2023

It is no question that staying invested during down-turns in the market can be a stomach-twisting endeavor for some people. The unfortunate thing is that most of these people tend to be the most scared and begin selling very close to...

 

Friday, January 27, 2023

“‘Tis the Season!”Corporate Earnings reporting season, that is!  And, as you would expect, get ready for scary headlines!As economists, analysists and talking heads stumble and bumble over every little word the...

 

Friday, January 20, 2023

Happy 2023!I hope you had a lovely holiday season and found time to relax, rejuvenate, and set new goals for 2023.The market volatility of 2022 was a roller coaster ride with enough ups, downs, twists, and turns to keep investors on...

 

Friday, January 13, 2023

It doesn’t make sense!The chart below is from the “Investors Intelligence Sentiment Survey” as of 1/3/2023.  The blue data flow is noisy, so focus on the red line.  It is the 52-week moving average and tends...

 

Friday, January 6, 2023

“NEVER” Before!The first chart below is also “a first”!Since data has been reported by the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII), back 36 years ago, there has NEVER been a period where...

 

Friday, December 30, 2022

The chart below is from Investors Intelligence.As you observe the five green circles around 1987, 1990, 1994-1995, 2008-2009 and 2016 it becomes obvious these were times of emotional stress, cloudy outlook, and emotional selling.In the...

 

Friday, December 23, 2022

In the December update of The Seven Signs of a Changing Economy™ (Read it Here), I wrote under Sign #7 that the Producer Price Index (PPI) had crested and was starting to drop.The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures inflation at...

 

Friday, December 16, 2022

As you observe the data flow below, it would be fair for you to believe this cycle of inflation has peaked and is now rolling lower.  I believe that is true but don’t forget that even if the inflation inputs are going down,...

 

Friday, December 9, 2022

During our WSG Seven Signs of a Changing Economy™ conference call last month, I introduced the name Nick Timiraos, Chief Economics Correspondent at the Wall Street Journal.  Nick’s forecast for what will happen next is...

 

Friday, December 2, 2022

Have you seen the following news headline in any pieces you read, programs you listen to or watch?“Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) up 5,929.74 points (+20.69%) in the last 34 trade sessions!”How about this...

 

Wednesday, November 23, 2022

Happy Thanksgiving to you and your family from all of us at The Wealth Strategies Group!

 

Friday, November 18, 2022

The big, fat, black fly in the ointment! There! I said it!I am referring to our peek around the economic quarter six to nine months in the future, May 2023 – August 2023, The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI)...

 

Friday, November 11, 2022

This past Wednesday, November 2, 2022, the Federal Reserve again increased interest rates by another +.75%.  This is the third increase of +.75%.  This action is now the shortest and highest increase in history.  And,...

 

Friday, November 4, 2022

The year of 2022 will certainly remain in the history books for decades to come as one of the most volatile ever.  Our WSG structure, strategy and processes have done their job as I created them to do.  The tools I created...

 

Friday, October 28, 2022

The chart below was created on 10/21/2022 by All Star Charts.  It is reflecting the 4-week moving average of a few key Investor Sentiment indicators.On the top is the valuation or Corporate America, as measured by the S&P 500...

 

Friday, October 21, 2022

A historically popular indicator of future trends is the relationship between the 2-year and 10-year US Treasury rates.In a strong and growing economy, the 10-year rate would be higher than the 2-year rate. This is because looking...

 

Friday, October 14, 2022

Mr. and Mrs. 401(k) are slowly but steadily capitulating.  That is just a fancy word for “selling en masse” for no other reason than valuations continue to drop.This is how corrections tend to end, or as some of us...

 

Friday, October 7, 2022

“Five Year Money”Since I shared my concept of “Five Year Money” with you on January 7, 2022, the markets have launched a few volatility torpedoes our way.  We have “enjoyed” some of the...

 

Friday, September 30, 2022

The Smell of Fear!Like many things in life, the more things change, the more they stay the same.Below, I am pasting in a “Special Update” I sent our client family on 12/26/2018.  It is about our wicked smart engineer...

 

Friday, September 23, 2022

I am intentionally choosing to keep a larger, by a mile, than normal amount in the money market, i.e., won't go up but also won't go down in value.  As longer-term fixed income investments are a poor choice in an increasing...

 

Friday, September 16, 2022

Leading Economic Index (LEI)The Conference Board is the creator of The Leading Economic Index (LEI).  For almost fifty years they have tracked and reported on their ten key economic inputs with an exceptional record of accuracy...

 

Friday, September 9, 2022

“The Year over Year (YoY) Phenomenon”In the investment industry it is quite common to make comparisons between any given date versus twelve months prior, meaning a year over year measurement.It has now been over two years...

 

Friday, September 2, 2022

Like the Fear vs. Greed indicator the Bank of America has its version of the Fear Index, which they call the “BofA Bull & Bear Indicator”.“Bull” implies a positive outlook for market returns while...

 

Friday, August 26, 2022

The Weekly Update 8/26/2022Conflicting Data Points Continue!!The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Business Outlook Report below came in surprisingly positive.  As you can see in the news report dated 8-8-2022 below, expectations were...

 

Friday, August 19, 2022

There’s a saying in investing which states, “Even a dead cat bounces” in reference to a short-term reversal in trend. The context is saying that anything that is dropped from high enough will bounce. However, if the...

 

Friday, August 12, 2022

The Seven Signs of a Changing Economy™ Summer UpdateThe data flow tends to be slow in the summer, so like all prior Augusts, I pull the research inputs for the Seven Signs, but I don’t publish and email an August edition...

 

Friday, August 5, 2022

The Weekly Update 8/5/20222023 could be rewarding to the owners of Corporate America!Over the years I have often referred to the work of Ned Davis Research, because it is well documented, quantifiable and mostly accurate.As we are now...

 

Friday, July 29, 2022

In the July update for The Seven Signs of a Changing Economy, I wrote that it would not be unexpected to see market values steady here.Through July and August, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to increase interest rates to...

 

Friday, July 22, 2022

In the July 2022 issue of The Seven Signs of a Changing Economy™ (Read it Here) I detailed how we could be clunking along the bottom of this bear market (negative) cycle.  In our client accounts, we continue to have heavy...

 

Friday, July 15, 2022

Since I started writing The Seven Signs of a Changing Economy™ updates, as the “tail” end data flow to my best-selling book, Surviving the Storm (McGraw-Hill 2007), fifteen years ago, there has always been an...

 

Friday, July 8, 2022

There are four phases of a market cycle – 1) Accumulation 2) Mark-up 3) Distribution 4) Decline.Accumulation Phase – this phase follows a decline and is where values of Corporate America are attractive and a good entry...

 

Friday, July 1, 2022

If you find the news headlines confusing, you would be normal.As an example, here are three headlines that hit News Watch on Friday, 6/24/2022 within seven minutes of each other.4:19 p.m.:         ...

 

Friday, June 24, 2022

                                    March 2020In The Weekly Update for 6/10/2022 (Read it Here) I presented this BofA Global Investment Strategy...

 

Friday, June 17, 2022

This is Important!If you are a long-time member of our WSG family, you might remember the monthly update I did back in October 2002, titled “The Wicked Witch is Dead”. (You can read it here)Of course, I was referencing the...

 

Wednesday, June 15, 2022

The Exit Strategy Update!Over the last thirty years I have tracked many economists, indicators and data points looking for who, or what, was most correct in predicting what was "around the corner" for our investment...

 

Wednesday, June 15, 2022

The Wicked Witch is Dead…RevisitedIf you are a long-time client, you will likely recall a letter I sent on October 28, 2002.I titled it “The Wicked Witch is Dead”, as I was writing about the end of the “Tech...

 

Friday, June 10, 2022

For a baseline, let’s look over our shoulder to 2020 and remember the level of fear investors were feeling as the world started to close down due to Covid.                  ...

 

Wednesday, June 8, 2022

Is a recession knocking on our door?This is a question that I have been asked both directly and indirectly over the past few weeks. Some folks have even self-determined that the economy is already in a recession.Let’s start with...

 

Friday, June 3, 2022

Angst Everywhere!In addition to the Three Contrarian Indicators I presented in The Weekly Update for 5/27/2022 (Read it here), I have more to add below:Clearly these measurements of investor fear suggest the air is thick with it!For...

 

Friday, May 27, 2022

The Weekly Update 5/27/2022In The Weekly Update for 5/13/2022 (Read it here), I presented a chart from Charlie Bilello, who I don’t know, where Charlie posted market performance after CNBC ran the segment, “Markets in...

 

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Thursday, January 3, 2019

It is likely not news to you that in the last 16 business days the valuations of Corporate America had a fast and vicious melt down. On 12/3/2018 the Valuations of Corporate America, as measured by the S&P 500, stood at 2,790.37. On...