The Weekly Update 8/15/2025™
So Much Better Than Expected!
In The Weekly Update I wrote and posted to TWSG website on 6/27/2025, (Read it Here), I presented a graphic on the Quarterly Earnings and Revenue Growth for the S&P 500 from Zacks Investment Research, Inc.
Here is the 6/27/2025 chart and my comments below it from the 6/27/2025 edition.
My 6/27/2025 quote,
“Notice in 4Q24 and 1Q25 earnings were up +14% and +12.1% respectively. You may recall the big brain analysts on Wall Street had estimated these to be +7% and +5.89% at the start of each, 4Q24 and 1Q25. Again, just “off” by a cool 100+% too low!
My guess is they will be off on that +5%, forecasted in the 2Q25 box by - oh, I don’t know, let’s go with…by 100+%!” end quote.
As noted above I suggested the crack economists would be off by a “cool 100%+.”
Well, I was wrong they were off by over 200% on revenue estimates. With nearly all 500 companies’ earnings now reported here is the updated chart from the same source, Zacks Investment Research, Inc.
As you compare the first chart to the second you might also observe the crack economist team has increased the forward estimates by over 20%, starting in 3Q25E, which will be “way” too low!
There are two take-aways here. First, Corporate America is doing so much better than our news sources report that it would be funny, if it wasn’t so important.
Second, and most important to log into your mind and memory is this.
Don’t “EVER” let political events interfere with your view of what is going to happen in the investment markets. We have witnessed nothing more than politically motivated event after event for the last several months. None of it, and I really mean “None of it” matters!
In the January 1, 2025 edition of The Weekly Update, I shared a graphic of what I thought the U.S. Economy would be like in 2025 (Read it Here). Here it is again, and in my humble opinion, it is not too late to be investing new money!
I did not say market valuations go straight up, and I did not say without volatility, yet the data flow suggests the good old USA has a very bright outlook. Think “Five Year Money” (Read it Here)
I’m interested in your thoughts, comments and observations. Feel welcome to call, email, or stop by the office and say Hi.
Respectfully,
James O. Lunney, CFP®
CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ Professional
*The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. Investing involves risk. Loss, including loss of principal, may occur. No strategy assures success or protects against loss. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
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