The Weekly Update 8/22/2025™
Change Is Not Unusual, Just Uncomfortable!
In The Weekly Update I wrote for 8-1-2025 (Read it Here), I detailed how August and September are the two worst performing months of the twelve. Don’t let air pockets, downdrafts, speedbumps, or whatever else you choose to call volatility, get to you!
For our client family, I don’t notice that anyone is fearful but those outside of our circle of trust remain so scared they can’t spit! Here is the proof in the “Bull/Bear Indictor”.
Two take aways from this chart are 1) nearly 70% of investors are not Bullish (positive) on the investment outlook and perhaps most importantly 2) notice the four-week trend in the chart. As the capital markets hit record high valuations the investor crowd grew more Bearish (negative) in their investment outlook.
Yet while almost 70% of the investors surveyed are not positive, we stand on a very positive economic footing:
• Record Corporate Earnings
• Record Cash Flows
• Record Household Wealth
• Record Household Net Worth
• Record Cash on the Sidelines Earning Little
There are many other record data points, but you get the idea, trend, theme, etc.! I started my 43rd year at my desk this past May. In all of those years I have never seen 70% of investors negative on the outlook while valuations of Corporate America rest at all-time highs! Never!
As I write this update on August 20, 2025, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rests at a touch over 44,900. My guess is the negative investor crowd will remain negative until the DJIA hits 54,000 (up about 20%) or even 60,000 (up 33% from here).
No one knows the future, including me, but having been around the horn a few times I can strongly suggest that Mr. & Mrs. 401K will remain in their investment comma until DJIA 54,000+. At TWSG we will remain on plan, focused, and continuing to own what we choose to own, on purpose, as we have for the last several years.
I did not say market valuations go straight up, and I did not say without volatility, yet the data flow suggests the good old USA has a very bright outlook. Think “Five Year Money” (Read it Here).
I’m interested in your thoughts, comments and observations. Feel welcome to call, email, or stop by the office and say Hi.
Respectfully,
James O. Lunney, CFP®
CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ Professional
*The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. Investing involves risk. Loss, including loss of principal, may occur. No strategy assures success or protects against loss. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
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